Study 01 · MisterLabs220
It worked on four coins.
Then it stopped on all four.
A multi-timeframe trend strategy — a slow 220-period trend filter with daily, 4-hour and 1-hour confirmation — tested unchanged on ADA, SOL, BTC and ETH from 2024-10-01 to 2026-08-04. It is profitable on all four in the first sixteen months and loses on all four in the six months after. This page shows both halves and every trade.
What we found
The strategy is not broken. It is out of season.
Tested on its original asset alone, this looked like one of the best things we had built — a 1.83 profit factor across sixteen months on ADA. The obvious next step was to make it live.
Instead we ran the identical rules on three coins it had never seen. It scored between 1.70 and 1.88 on every one. That rules out the usual explanation: logic bent to fit one chart cannot generalise to four.
Then we ran all four forward through the following six months. Every one of them lost. Combined, −$2,834 across 154 closed trades. Four assets breaking in the same window is not a broken rule — it is a change in the market. This is a trend-following system, and there has not been a trend to follow.
The damage is one-sided. The short trades account for −$2,694 of it; the long trades come to −$139 — close to flat. That is a real finding about which half of the method survived, and it is the only change the evidence actually supports.
ADA · the two halves
realised on $500 starting capital, 289 closed trades
realised on $500 starting capital, 48 closed trades · 1 still open (+$1,594), not counted
ADA trade log
48 closed trades · 23 winners · net −$860 on $500 · 1 still open, not counted
| Entered | Side | Entry | Exit | Held | Result | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 01:00 | long 2× | 0.1764 | — | 2.5d | +$1,594* +9.0% | still open |
| 2026-07-27 14:00 | short | 0.1590 | 0.1628 | 1.4d | −$218 −2.4% | short stop |
| 2026-07-17 02:00 | short | 0.1598 | 0.1660 | 14h | −$368 −3.9% | above sma220 |
| 2026-07-12 00:00 | short | 0.1637 | 0.1644 | 2.6d | −$41 −0.4% | short stop |
| 2026-06-27 19:00 | short | 0.1453 | 0.1495 | 3.3d | −$283 −2.9% | above sma220 |
| 2026-06-25 19:00 | short | 0.1411 | 0.1415 | 1h | −$28 −0.3% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-25 17:00 | short | 0.1446 | 0.1423 | 1h | +$154 +1.6% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-25 15:00 | short | 0.1432 | 0.1428 | 1h | +$27 +0.3% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-25 13:00 | short | 0.1389 | 0.1428 | 1h | −$279 −2.8% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-24 18:00 | short | 0.1417 | 0.1412 | 1h | +$35 +0.3% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-24 16:00 | short | 0.1416 | 0.1401 | 1h | +$104 +1.1% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-24 14:00 | short | 0.1454 | 0.1439 | 1h | +$100 +1.0% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-24 11:00 | short | 0.1483 | 0.1454 | 2h | +$186 +2.0% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-18 15:00 | short | 0.1604 | 0.1472 | 5.8d | +$723 +8.2% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-10 23:00 | short | 0.1607 | 0.1707 | 18h | −$583 −6.2% | short stop |
| 2026-06-10 21:00 | short | 0.1595 | 0.1602 | 1h | −$41 −0.4% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-10 10:00 | short | 0.1607 | 0.1596 | 1h | +$64 +0.7% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-10 08:00 | short | 0.1595 | 0.1604 | 1h | −$53 −0.6% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-10 06:00 | short | 0.1605 | 0.1614 | 1h | −$53 −0.6% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-10 04:00 | short | 0.1615 | 0.1604 | 1h | +$64 +0.7% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-10 02:00 | short | 0.1619 | 0.1624 | 1h | −$29 −0.3% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-10 00:00 | short | 0.1663 | 0.1648 | 1h | +$84 +0.9% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-09 22:00 | short | 0.1651 | 0.1653 | 1h | −$11 −0.1% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-09 20:00 | short | 0.1681 | 0.1661 | 1h | +$110 +1.2% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-09 18:00 | short | 0.1669 | 0.1685 | 1h | −$89 −1.0% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-09 16:00 | short | 0.1620 | 0.1652 | 1h | −$188 −2.0% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-09 14:00 | short | 0.1663 | 0.1631 | 1h | +$180 +1.9% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-04 05:00 | short | 0.1967 | 0.1978 | 1h | −$52 −0.6% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-04 03:00 | short | 0.1998 | 0.1990 | 1h | +$37 +0.4% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-03 23:00 | short | 0.2004 | 0.1978 | 1h | +$120 +1.3% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-03 21:00 | short | 0.2055 | 0.2026 | 1h | +$128 +1.4% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-03 19:00 | short | 0.2048 | 0.2023 | 1h | +$110 +1.2% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-03 17:00 | short | 0.2099 | 0.2084 | 1h | +$64 +0.7% | target 10pct |
| 2026-05-24 14:00 | short | 0.2429 | 0.2088 | 9.5d | +$1,099 +14.0% | target 10pct |
| 2026-05-15 13:00 | short | 0.2580 | 0.2499 | 8.3d | +$238 +3.1% | short stop |
| 2026-05-06 00:00 | long 2× | 0.2608 | 0.2679 | 7.5d | +$392 +2.7% | below sma220 |
| 2026-04-29 18:00 | short | 0.2417 | 0.2493 | 1.6d | −$234 −3.1% | above sma220 |
| 2026-04-14 19:00 | short | 0.2404 | 0.2490 | 1.0d | −$276 −3.6% | above sma220 |
| 2026-04-12 06:00 | short | 0.2420 | 0.2486 | 1.7d | −$216 −2.7% | short stop |
| 2026-04-02 02:00 | short | 0.2406 | 0.2484 | 1.6d | −$265 −3.2% | above sma220 |
| 2026-03-30 20:00 | short | 0.2439 | 0.2520 | 1.4d | −$281 −3.3% | short stop |
| 2026-03-26 09:00 | short | 0.2575 | 0.2505 | 4.0d | +$224 +2.7% | short stop |
| 2026-03-24 17:00 | short | 0.2592 | 0.2717 | 15h | −$418 −4.8% | above sma220 |
| 2026-03-20 18:00 | short | 0.2637 | 0.2633 | 2.8d | +$13 +0.1% | short stop |
| 2026-03-05 17:00 | short | 0.2667 | 0.2620 | 4.4d | +$150 +1.8% | short stop |
| 2026-03-03 08:00 | short | 0.2659 | 0.2808 | 1.3d | −$504 −5.6% | above sma220 |
| 2026-02-28 06:00 | short | 0.2629 | 0.2754 | 13h | −$449 −4.8% | short stop |
| 2026-02-23 18:00 | short | 0.2634 | 0.2701 | 1.6d | −$247 −2.5% | short stop |
| 2026-02-22 14:00 | short | 0.2720 | 0.2736 | 22h | −$57 −0.6% | short stop |
* A position marked still open never hit an exit condition — the study period ended while it was running. Its figure is marked to the last price, not a booked result, and it is excluded from every total on this page.
SOL · the two halves
realised on $500 starting capital, 253 closed trades
realised on $500 starting capital, 43 closed trades
SOL trade log
43 closed trades · 18 winners · net −$1,635 on $500
| Entered | Side | Entry | Exit | Held | Result | Closed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 00:00 | short | 73.7300 | 73.9800 | 6.8d | −$14 −0.3% | above sma220 |
| 2026-07-24 13:00 | short | 74.2200 | 76.7100 | 2.4d | −$145 −3.4% | above sma220 |
| 2026-07-20 15:00 | long 2× | 77.7600 | 76.7000 | 2.9d | −$121 −1.4% | below sma220 |
| 2026-07-20 11:00 | long 2× | 77.1400 | 76.1500 | 3h | −$117 −1.3% | below sma220 |
| 2026-07-20 00:00 | long 2× | 76.5700 | 75.9200 | 5h | −$79 −0.8% | below sma220 |
| 2026-07-17 05:00 | short | 74.4000 | 76.3800 | 2.8d | −$127 −2.7% | above sma220 |
| 2026-07-11 01:00 | short | 77.5400 | 78.2600 | 4.2d | −$45 −0.9% | above sma220 |
| 2026-07-03 01:00 | long | 81.4800 | 78.7300 | 5.1d | −$168 −3.4% | below sma220 |
| 2026-06-25 13:00 | short | 64.2300 | 67.7200 | 10h | −$287 −5.4% | short stop |
| 2026-06-23 08:00 | short | 68.7000 | 68.4600 | 1.8d | +$18 +0.3% | short stop |
| 2026-06-09 02:00 | short | 65.9100 | 65.8800 | 2.4d | +$2 +0.1% | short stop |
| 2026-06-04 11:00 | short | 68.7000 | 70.1200 | 1h | −$111 −2.1% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-04 08:00 | short | 69.2500 | 68.8600 | 1h | +$30 +0.6% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-04 06:00 | short | 70.3500 | 69.1500 | 1h | +$90 +1.7% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-04 04:00 | short | 70.9000 | 70.3500 | 1h | +$40 +0.8% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-03 19:00 | short | 71.9900 | 71.2300 | 1h | +$54 +1.1% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-03 17:00 | short | 73.1700 | 73.0900 | 1h | +$6 +0.1% | target 10pct |
| 2026-06-02 23:00 | short | 74.2300 | 72.7100 | 4h | +$103 +2.0% | target 10pct |
| 2026-05-27 21:00 | short | 82.4900 | 73.6700 | 6.0d | +$487 +10.7% | target 10pct |
| 2026-05-22 19:00 | short | 84.5500 | 87.0800 | 1.0d | −$141 −3.0% | above sma220 |
| 2026-05-15 13:00 | short | 88.9000 | 87.8300 | 6.3d | +$56 +1.2% | short stop |
| 2026-05-06 00:00 | long 2× | 86.3800 | 90.4300 | 7.6d | +$398 +4.7% | below sma220 |
| 2026-04-29 16:00 | short | 83.1300 | 84.6800 | 4.3d | −$81 −1.9% | above sma220 |
| 2026-04-26 15:00 | long 2× | 86.5600 | 85.9500 | 14h | −$62 −0.7% | below sma220 |
| 2026-04-26 04:00 | long 2× | 86.4500 | 86.0900 | 8h | −$37 −0.4% | below sma220 |
| 2026-04-22 00:00 | long 2× | 86.4800 | 85.9500 | 1.1d | −$55 −0.6% | below sma220 |
| 2026-04-07 14:00 | short | 78.5900 | 81.6300 | 5h | −$180 −3.9% | above sma220 |
| 2026-04-01 21:00 | short | 81.8600 | 81.8900 | 4.1d | −$2 −0.0% | above sma220 |
| 2026-03-26 16:00 | short | 87.2000 | 85.2600 | 6.0d | +$101 +2.2% | short stop |
| 2026-03-25 00:00 | long 2× | 91.3200 | 89.2600 | 1.2d | −$215 −2.3% | below sma220 |
| 2026-03-21 23:00 | short | 87.5600 | 90.2300 | 1.5d | −$150 −3.0% | above sma220 |
| 2026-03-07 19:00 | short | 82.5300 | 85.9700 | 2.0d | −$214 −4.2% | above sma220 |
| 2026-02-28 06:00 | short | 77.5600 | 82.3600 | 12h | −$339 −6.2% | short stop |
| 2026-02-23 00:00 | short | 81.3700 | 82.0000 | 2.0d | −$43 −0.8% | short stop |
| 2026-02-18 18:00 | short | 81.2800 | 83.7100 | 1.5d | −$170 −3.0% | above sma220 |
| 2026-02-12 21:00 | short | 77.3400 | 81.3300 | 17h | −$310 −5.2% | short stop |
| 2026-02-12 19:00 | short | 77.6200 | 76.9200 | 1h | +$54 +0.9% | target 10pct |
| 2026-02-12 16:00 | short | 78.3000 | 77.6100 | 2h | +$52 +0.9% | target 10pct |
| 2026-02-11 19:00 | short | 79.7200 | 79.6400 | 1h | +$6 +0.1% | target 10pct |
| 2026-02-11 17:00 | short | 79.0100 | 79.8100 | 1h | −$60 −1.0% | target 10pct |
| 2026-02-11 15:00 | short | 79.7200 | 78.7400 | 1h | +$72 +1.2% | target 10pct |
| 2026-02-11 10:00 | short | 80.6900 | 79.9500 | 4h | +$53 +0.9% | target 10pct |
| 2026-02-11 07:00 | short | 81.0000 | 80.8000 | 2h | +$14 +0.3% | target 10pct |
All four assets
The same shape everywhere
Profit factor above 1 means the method made more than it lost. Below 1 means it did not. The first column is the period the strategy was designed against; the second is everything after.
| Asset | First 16 months | Six months after | Realised after | Closed trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 1.83 | 0.84 | −$860 | 48 |
| SOL | 1.72 | 0.50 | −$1,635 | 43 |
| BTC | 1.88 | 1.02 | +$10 | 29 |
| ETH | 1.70 | 0.76 | −$349 | 34 |
Method
Entries need agreement across four timeframes at once — a daily uptrend, a 4-hour regime, 1-hour momentum, and price the right side of a 220-period average — plus a trigger on the 15-minute chart. Exits use progressive trailing stops. Position sizing is a fixed $1,000 notional per entry regardless of price, which is what lets the same rules run on a $0.19 coin and a $100,000 one without adjustment.
Nothing was tuned between assets or between periods. That is the entire point: a rule set adjusted until it fits is not evidence of anything. The only honest test of a strategy is the data it has never seen, which is why the second column exists.
Data: Binance 5-minute candles, 2024-10-01 → 2026-08-04. Simulated from $500 starting capital with no slippage, fees or funding costs applied — real execution would score worse than shown. Generated 2026-08-04. All research →